More young women are being diagnosed. Here’s what the science says, and why there’s real reason for hope.
Authors: Melanie Custodio and Lisa Vossen
What does it actually mean when cancer rates rise? We hear the words incidence, survival rates, and mortality, and you might think they all point to the same pattern, but they actually tell different stories about the state of cancer and public health.
For breast cancer, one of the most common cancers in adults, research shows that incidence among women between the ages of 20 and 39 has increased in recent years [1]. Incidence is the rate of new cases over a certain time period. The incidence rate of breast cancer has increased by 1% per year, according to the American Cancer Society [2]. In the case of women younger than 50, the incidence increased by 1.4% per year [2]. Among women aged 18 to 40, this upward trend seems to be most noted in non-Hispanic white women, but a rising tendency was also seen in young Asian, Hispanic, American Indian/Alaska Native, and Native Hawaiian and Pacific Islander women [3].
If you’re anything like me, you might be thinking that routine mammograms don’t start until your 40s or even 50s, depending on where you live. In the United States, screening is recommended every two years from age 40 [4], while in the UK the NHS invites women from age 50 [5], and in the European Union, screening is recommended from age 50, and suggested from age 45 [6]. So why don’t we start screening women earlier? It’s a valid question, and one scientists are still debating. At the moment, guidelines tend to steer clear of screening under the age of 40 [7] due to false positives and subjecting women to procedures that may cause major anxiety, discomfort and, unsurprisingly, expenses [8].
However, while the incidence of breast cancer among younger women is increasing, the mortality rate (the number of deaths over a specific time) has been steadily decreasing. In the United States, breast cancer deaths have fallen 44% since 1989 [2], thanks to scientific efforts such as earlier detection and innovation in treatments, all of which would not be possible without clinical trials.
Still, the growing rate of diagnosis in younger women is a concern, and younger women often deal with more aggressive and advanced types of breast cancer [9]. On CBS News’ “Healthful,” Dr. Eleonora Teplinsky explained that there’s no one reason for breast cancer, with factors like diet, physical activity, environment and reproductive history all possibly playing a role [10]. There are studies showing risk factors such as having a first pregnancy later in life, alcohol intake, genetic predisposition and even early menstruation [11][12][13]. However, there are still gaps in research on breast cancer risk factors [10].
While there may be gaps in researching risk factors, scientists have made enormous strides in treatments. On May 30th this year, the world was “rocked” at the 2026 American Society of Clinical Oncology conference when the first results of OPTIMA were presented [14]. OPTIMA, a clinical trial led by University College London (UCL), enrolled 4,429 people aged 40 and up with high-risk, hormone-sensitive early breast cancer [14][15]. One group was given the standard treatment: chemotherapy followed by hormone therapy. The other group had their tumor tested with Prosigna, a test that looks at the activity of 50 genes [15], and patients with low scores were only given hormone therapy. The results showed similar outcomes after 5 years [14]. For patients meeting these low gene activity criteria, this could mean being treated with hormone therapy only, without having to go through chemotherapy.
In terms of detection, there is still hope. Researchers in Sweden tested three AI tools on almost 89,000 mammograms [16]. The AI picked up early signs in 1 in 5 women who were later diagnosed, on scans taken six years before their diagnosis, and in nearly 4 in 10 women on scans taken two years before [16]. This study looked back at past scans, so it doesn’t mean AI can predict breast cancer yet. Most of the women in this kind of research are older, because routine mammograms start at age 40 or later, depending on the country [4][5][16]. That’s why it matters that future studies include younger women, too.
What does this mean for us? Breast cancer is rising in younger women, and researchers are still working to understand why. But there’s a real reason for hope. Every one of these advances exists because women chose to take part in studies. The next breakthroughs depend on more women, especially younger women, doing the same. At TrialMe, we make that easier by connecting women with studies that match them.
References
Ellington TD, Miller JW, Henley SJ, Wilson RJ, Wu M, Richardson LC. Trends in breast cancer incidence, by race, ethnicity, and age among women aged ≥20 years — United States, 1999–2018. MMWR Morb Mortal Wkly Rep. 2022;71(2):43-47. doi:10.15585/mmwr.mm7102a2
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Den J, Nelson N, Vaghjiani R, Tyler D, Klimberg VS. Rising breast cancer incidence and poor outcomes in young women: a retrospective study. Breast J. 2026;2026:5584726. doi:10.1155/tbj/5584726
US Preventive Services Task Force. Breast cancer: screening. Final recommendation statement. April 30, 2024. Accessed October 28, 2026. https://uspreventiveservicestaskforce.org/uspstf/node/1248
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World Health Organization. Breast cancer. Fact sheet. July 3, 2026. https://www.who.int/news-room/fact-sheets/detail/breast-cancer
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Begley M. Some breast cancer patients may avoid chemotherapy: OPTIMA study. Breast Cancer Research Foundation. June 2, 2026. https://www.bcrf.org/blog/some-breast-cancer-patients-may-avoid-chemotherapy-optima-study/
Medical News Today. AI may detect signs of breast cancer up to 6 years before diagnosis. June 11, 2026. https://www.medicalnewstoday.com/articles/ai-mammography-detect-1-in-5-breast-cancer-cases-6-years-before-diagnosis
